ons Diamondbacks Farm TeamsGameday ThreadsDiamondbacks NewsDiamondbacks Game ReportsFang FoodCrowd Sourcing Diamondbacks Over/Under Projections: #1David PeraltaNew Kirk Gibson Jersey ,49commentsThe Freight Train Rumbles OnESTShareTweetShareShareCrowd Sourcing Diamondbacks Over/Under Projections: #1David PeraltaMark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY SportsThis series of articles will run from now until shortly before opening day. The purpose is to crowd source the D-Backs fans of this website to get a sense of how they feel about the prospects of each individual player on the 40 man roster. For this exercise I will only be using rate (average) stats and poll the readers on their sense of direction for that player’s level of basic performance, regardless of playing time expectations.I’m not including defense and base running, so no WAR here, as that is playing time dependent. You will be given two poll options:The player will either exceed the projection or under perform the projection by 5% for hitters OPS or 10% for pitchers ERA/FIP.There is no middle option to vote on. (Otherwise the majority of votes would end up agreeing with the projection).What I am looking for is if you are forced to indicate your sense of direction for the player, is it well over or under the projection?Other Points of note:Projections are the average of Steamer and ZIPS projections.(Click through for original tables)The projections draw on 3 or 4 year samples, weighting most recent seasons the heaviest, but I’m just showing 2018 and career statsin mini table below for simplicityThe player’s name is high lighted with a link to the player’s Baseball-Reference page.Click on that to see more player history and detailAge is the 2019 player age.Polls will run until mid March, so if you miss a player,you can go to the story stream box on the front page andfind a player you might have missed .Please let us know in the comments section your thoughts behind your vote. Thanks !CONTEXT DAVID PERALTA Age 31David Peralta’s projection is for an .815 OPS.Is he most likely to come in over or under? What are the chances the Braves win the division?"You can read this post’s title either way, they’re both valid. Either this is stupid math, or math for a stupid off day. Take it how you will.One of my favorite meta baseball-y things are playoff odds. Some people may not care, but I like watching them zigzag and evolve over time. While this is more fun during the season, the offseason can also suffice. Unfortunately, Fangraphs’ playoff odds module (https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds) is not yet updated for 2019, even though it reads “2019” everywhere while displaying 2018 results, so that’s led me down this stupid path to this stupid exercise.Yesterday, Anthony did a tremendous job summarizing a whole bunch of things. That article (go read it if you haven’t) included some great tables about current projected records, as well as playoff odds via Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS (which is not quite the same as the overall Fangraphs playoff odds, which blend Steamer and ZiPS together). That got me to thinking http://www.tigersfanproshop.com/authentic-joe-jimenez-jersey , all of that is well and good, but given what we know, how might the division actually shake out?That’s where the stupid math comes in. Here’s what I did. I started with each team’s projected wins, from the Fangraphs projected standings page, which is updated for 2019 (https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.as...ition=Standings). These standings currently have the Nationals at 90 wins, the Phillies second at 86, the Braves and Mets virtually tied at 84, and the Marlins bringing up not just the division rear, but the entirety of MLB, with 62 victories. (Also, be advised that these numbers have been observed to jump around with little warning, so these are the numbers as of 2:33 pm ET on March 7, 2019.) (Minor pedantic/irrelevant note — I’m a fan of considering wins in the context of WAR-wins, i.e., team projected WAR plus about 47.6. By this record, the Fangraphs Depth Charts projections have the Braves at around 85.5 wins, above the 84-win projection. The reality, though, is that schedule matters to some extent Victor Martinez Jersey , and that’s likely what’s driving the 84-win projection, as well as the fact that I think Fangraphs uses BaseRuns rather than straight-up WAR totals for their projected standings.)But, those win totals are just point estimates. And what do we say to the god of point estimates? “Show us distributions, dingus!” To get those distributions, I simply applied the complete array of variability associated with “projected vs. actual results” for 2005 through 2018 (hat tip to Jeff Sullivan for most of these data, which he graciously shared with me years ago; I’ve been updating it since). Once that was done, it was an easy task to just array the five NL East teams in terms of wins, and see who came out ahead, and how often.I ran 10,000 trials. Here are some examples:In the first trial, the Nationals captured the division title with 97 wins. The Braves and Phillies also crested the 90-win mark by winning 93 and 92 games, respectively. The Marlins substantially outperformed their own projections as well, winning 77 games, leaving the collapsing Mets fifth with just 75 victories.In trial number 39, the Nats again prevailed (95), and the Braves and Phillies were again neck and neck (89, 87), also joined by the Mets (84). The Marlins Marlined, with 58 wins. In trial number 1920 http://www.tigersfanproshop.com/authentic-joe-jimenez-jersey , it was the Mets who clambered on top with 90 wins, and the Phillies finishing as runners-up with 87. The Nats backslid down to 83 wins, but sadly for the Braves, they finished under .500 with a 78-84 record. The Marlins had 57 wins.In trial number 9997, the Braves were victorious in the division with a 99-win season, while the Nats finished a distant second with 93 victories. The Phillies, Mets, and Marlins all kind of died (78, 85, 54 wins, respectively).To summarize these and the 9,996 other trials, see below.You can see from the above that the Nationals come out ahead most often, at a rate almost twice as frequent as the Phillies (and more than twice as frequent as the Braves and Mets). Yet, their division victory likelihood is still under 50 percent. The Phillies are marginally more likely to be the divisional runner-ups, while the Braves and Mets are equally likely to finish in some combination of third and fourth. And the Marlins, well, they also exist, I guess.Now James McCann Jersey , this exercise is very stupid, in that it doesn’t take into account stuff like:Sometimes wins come at the expense of other teams in your division. This exercise ignores this, and just modifies wins in general. In trial number 6472, the Phillies win the division with 75 wins. The division finishes with only 335 wins, total. That’s probably not going to happen; it’d mean the various NL East teams lost huge to every other division. The flip side is trial number 1660, where the Mets take first place with 104 wins, but the three non-Marlins teams finish with 99, 98, and 96 wins between them. Also probably not going to happen, unless the NL East pounds every other opponent mercilessly.The distributions around the central estimate for each team aren’t equal, but that equality assumption is being made here. Different teams have different risk factors and outcome distributions. This ignores all that. I’m not sure how rigorously the Fangraphs playoff odds apply this concept, but it’s probably more rigorously than here, so wait for those for a more judicious treatment of this aspect of forecasting.The Mets almost certainly not getting through the season without Michael Conforto missing two weeks due to a hangnail suffered while skydiving and Zach Wheeler injuring his elbow as a result of drinking Gatorade too quickly.Anyway, there you go. Stupid is as stupid math, and now you know. 17 percent division victory odds aren’t the best ever, but it’s better than 2015 through 2017 (and better than 2018 as well). Opening Day can’t come soon enough.